Mirce modelling
“From the mathematical point of view,
there is no such thing as a “correct”
probability distribution.” A. Dubi
As neither statistics studies causes of statistical behaviour nor probability theory determines shapes of the motion of machines through in-service reality, accurate predictions by Mirce mechanics equation require full understanding of the mechanisms of the in-service actions that generate occurrences of in-service events.
To understand the mechanisms that generate negative in-service events analysis of over tens of thousands of components, modules, assemblies and machines in aerospace, transportation, motor-sport, nuclear, communication and other industries, had been studied at the Mirce Akademy, during last few decades, by its staff and the Master and Doctoral Diploma students.
All mechanisms that generate negative in-service events, in Mirce science, are categorised as following:
Component-internal actions that consist of:
- Inherent mechanisms – resulting from the imposed actions into components prior to their placing into in-service reality, which are associated with the design, manufacturing, handling, transportation, maintenance, storage and similar nature.
- Discrete mechanisms – acting stresses generated by mechanical, electrical, thermal, radiation, chemical and other type of energy that exceed the strength of components and machines subjected, resulting from phenomena like foreign object damage (birds, hail, rain, snow), lightening, abuse by operators, maintenance errors and similar
- Cumulative mechanisms – acting processes that are an inevitable part of the components in-service reality, resulting from natural decays, such as: corrosion, fatigue, creep, wear, abrasion and similar.
Component-external actions, which are originated by:
- Environmental mechanisms – that cause discrete overload, like foreign object damage; birds strike (domestic and wild animals), weather (hail, rain, snow, lightening, solar radiation, etc.,) and so forth.
- Human activities:
- Errors in use and abuse by: operators, (pilots, driver and other users), maintainers (maintenance induced errors) and logistics support personnel (bogus parts, shelf life, transportation, packaging, etc.)
- Rules that are related to organisational policies, legal requirements, national and international, best practices or any other human imposed actions (scheduled and condition based maintenance tasks).
Machine-internal actions: resulting from processes that are taking place within a machine, like a change from passive to active state for certain components and modules, a change of in-service states of some of its constituent components that impact the in-service state of a machine.
Machine-external actions: which are generated by:
- Discrete environmental mechanisms related to weather (hail, rain, snow, lightening, volcanic eruptions, wind, fog, solar radiation, etc.) and other causes that impact the in-service state a machine.
- Human activities:
- Errors, which are related to the phenomena of use and abuse by: operators, maintainers or supply chain personnel.
- Rules, which are related to organisational policies, legal requirements, national and international, best practices or any other human imposed functionability actions that cause the occurrence of negative in-service event of a machine.
All physical mechanisms that cause the motion of a machine from the negative to positive in-service states are named as positive actions. Mechanisms that generate positive events belong to the following categories:
- Servicing: replenishment of consumable fluids, energy, belts, etc.
- Lubrication: installing or replenishing lubricant.
- Inspection: performed to visually detect obvious unsatisfactory conditions. It may require the removal of panels and access doors, work stands, ladders, mirrors, special lighting, hand lens, boroscopes, etc.
- Examination: quantitative assessment of one/more functions on an item to determine whether it performs within acceptable limits, usually require measuring tools, equipment and physical measurements/analysis
- Restoration: performed to return a machine to a specific standard. This may involve cleaning, refurbishment, repair or overhaul.
- Replacement: removal of an internal to return a machine to a specific standard.
All of the above listed mechanisms of the motion of machines through positive and negative in-service states generate occurrences of corresponding in-service events. Thus, these mechanisms of in-service reality must be fully understood in ordered to be subjected to the Mirce mechanics equations to facilitate the accurate predictions of expected in-service performance of a machine.
It is necessary to stress that the accuracy of the predictions obtained by the Mirce mechanics equations is directly proportional to the accuracy of "translating" causing mechanisms of the motion of machines through in-service reality into their mathematical representations. Otherwise, the a computing and analytical concept is fully applicable, "Garbage in, garbage out"!
Source: Knezevic, J., The Origin of MIRCE Science, pp. 232, MIRCE Science, Exeter, UK, 2017, ISBN 978-1-904848-06-6