.jpg)
May 2013
Question for the Month
Are expressions “complicated system” and “complex system”
a) Two ways to describe the same entity?
b) Two different entities?
c) Irrelevant question?
For the correct answer please see the Members Only area of the website.
Quote for the Month
"Knowledge is the only instrument of production that is not subject to the law of diminishing returns"
For the author of the quote please see the Members Only area of the website.
Orlando’s ASD- Simplified Technical English Example of the month:
Which of the following sentences is correct in Simplified Technical English?
a) Holes must not have sharp edges?
b) Holes shall not have sharp edges?
c) Holes should not have sharp edges?
For the correct answer please see the Members Only area of the website.
Paper for the Month:
Assessment of meeting the MTBF targets for the product during the development trials, by John Thompson, Science Fellow fo the MIRCE Akademy
The development program for this product consisted of 9 flying-machines, A1 to A9. Each hasa different engineering role. For example, A1 airframe and transmission, A5 full systems-electronics-airframe-engines. It meant that A1 did not have a production equipmentstandard auto flight system fitted. Therefore, to assess the likely production flying-machine MTBF only the event data from production like systems from A1 to A9 are usedto estimate the MTBF values. The prime contractor makes the airframe and designs the systems and interfaces between systems. Major system equipment’s are supplied by subcontractors(OEM). During the development trials the equipment’s are moved between flying-machines and test rigs because, in general there is a shortage equipment’s and of the correctmodification standard. The prime contractor system designers are concentrating on getting the system to work to the contract design specification.The reliability dept is running a failure reporting & corrective action system [FRACS], withmonthly meetings with the chief designer and system designers to progress definition offailure modes and corrective actions.To define a failure mode & devise a corrective action usually take between 6 to 18 months. To implement this corrective action takes a further 6 to 18 months. Therefore, on average acorrective action modification takes 24 months to be seen in the flying-machine trials and, to see if the corrective actions is successful and the MTBF increases.However, the tracking of equipment’s and there modification status is impossible during the trials to assess their MTBF impact. Also,many modifications are for design reasons and notcorrective action.
Full paper is available to the Members of the MIRCE Akademy.
>>>> To become a member of the MIRCE Akademy please click here <<<<
April 2013
Question for the Month
Bahrain Grand Prix is scheduled for 19-21 April 2013. Due to its closeness to the desert Sakhir, Bahrain International Circuit, during last few years recorded only 5 rainy days per year. However, current weather forecast predicts the rain on the racing Sunday. When it actually rains, the weather forecast is accurate 90% of the time. When it doesn't rain, the incorrect forecasts for rain are 10% of the time. What is the probability that it will rain on the 2013 Grand Prix day?
For the correct answer please see the Members Only area of the website.
Quote for the Month
“Unless I am much mistaken, it would exceed the force of human wit, to consider so many causes of motion at the same time, and to define the motions by exact laws which would allow of an easy calculation.”
For the author of the quote please see the Members Only area of the website.
Orlando’s ASD- Simplified Technical English Example of the month:
Which of the following sentences is correct in Simplified Technical English?
a) One generator has the ability to supply power for all the systems.
b) One generator can supply power for all the systems.
For the correct answer please see the Members Only area of the website.
Paper for the Month
Aircraft Life as a Complex System:
A New Methodology for Increasing Service Quality and Maximizing Profit
George Rzevski
Professor Emeritus, Centre for Complexity Science Applications, The Open University, UK. Executive Chairman, Multi-Agent Technology Group, London, UK www.rzevski.net
The paper describes a new research project undertaken by the Multi-Agent Technology Group, London in collaboration with MIRCE Akademy, with the objectives:
• To construct a large-scale software model of an individual aircraft life as a function of component failures and repairs
• To simulate aircraft life under different operational and servicing conditions, which affect component failures and repairs
• To develop an intelligent management system, which would ensure high levels of aircraft functionability (the ability of being functional)
Results of this research are applicable to all large engineering systems, including, aircraft (civil and military), vehicles (Formula 1 cars, tanks and heavy trucks) and communication equipment (civil and military).
The modeling, simulation and management methodology has been developed by the author based on his long-term research into methods for modeling, simulating and managing complex systems and processes [1], [2], [3].
Failure analysis adopted in this project is based on Mirce Mechanics, as published by Knezevic [4], [5], which has established that:
• Each engineering system has a unique individual failure pattern, which depends on how the system is used, how it is maintained and how it was assembled.
• System failures are interdependent; a failure of one component may cause failures of others depending on proximity of locations and functional links.
• Component failures are unpredictable but not random; patterns of failures can be discovered from failure data; these patterns are not permanent – they change as operating conditions of the system change.
These findings clearly show that current reliability assessment methods are inadequate and therefore a new approach is required.
Consider the following:
• If each individual system has a unique life, is it correct to assess reliability and organize identical maintenance for all systems manufactured to the same design?
• If failures are interdependent, is it correct to calculate failure rates ignoring spatial interdependence?
• If patterns of failures change in time does it make sense to prescribe maintenance procedures for the whole life of the system?
The target audience for this paper is managers and engineers engaged in engineering systems design, reliability and availability assessment, servicing, spare parts supply and logistics. It will be of interest to those working for manufacturers or operating organizations, as well as those engaged in academic study of reliability and logistics.
Why a New Approach?
The implication of Mirce Mechanics is that failure and repair patterns are Complex and therefore must be managed using methods of Complexity Science, as defined in the next section.
Traditional methods for reliability and availability assessment and for planning and scheduling of service activities, spare parts supply and logistics are inadequate, as shown in [4], [5].
The new approach described in this paper, has been developed taking into account uniqueness of individual system failure and repair patterns, component failure interdependencies and dependence of failure and repair patterns on changing operating and servicing conditions. To facilitate understanding of principles of the new approach I first provide an outline of the concept of Complexity and give references to key developments in Complexity Science.
In order to follow my arguments the readers will have to adjust their mindsets so that they can clearly distinguish between problems that can be solved using classical, Newtonian science and those that require a completely new approach – the Complexity Thinking.
Full paper is available to the Members of the MIRCE Akademy.
>>>> To become a member of the MIRCE Akademy please click here <<<<
March 2013
Question for the Month
Among some reliability experts the following statement is commonly accepted “To double reliability you just need to double the Mean Time To Failure.” Is this statement:
a) Correct?
b) Incorrect?
c) Meaningless?
For the correct answer please see the Members Only area of the website.
Paper for the Month
Maintenance Axiom of Mirce Mechanics
Dr Jezdimir Knezevic
MIRCE Akademy, Woodbury Park, Exeter, EX5 1JJ, UK
Abstract
Quality of maintenance process is quantifiable in statistical terms related to the occurrences of maintenance faults and errors. However, as statistics does not study the causes of statistical behaviour, full understanding of the quality of maintenance is only possible by understanding physical causes and mechanisms that lead to the occurrence of maintenance faults during the maintenance process. Based on the analysis of tens of thousands of maintenance tasks in defence, aerospace, transportation (including Formula 1 Grand Prix racing), communication and other industries the author has formulated the Maintenance Axiom of Mirce Mechanics, which is: The probability of faulty execution of any maintenance task is greater then zero. This axiom has a profound impact on all aspects of the life on any maintainable system, such as: reliability, availability, safety, cost, effectiveness and many others, on one hand, and associated processes like: manufacturing, operation, logistics support, on the other.
Quote for the Month
“All I want to do is to go to Cleveland, on time and never crash.”
For the author of the quote please see the Members Only.
Orlando’s ASD- Simplified Technical English Example of the month:
Which of the following two NOTES is correct in a maintenance procedure?
a) NOTE: It is not necessary to disassemble the pins from the electrical connector.
b) NOTE: Do not disassemble the pins from the electrical connector.
For the correct answer please see the Members Only area of the website.
>>>> To become a member of the MIRCE Akademy please click here <<<<
February 2013
Paper for the Month
Atoms and Molecules in Mirce Mechanics Approach to Functionability
Dr J. Knezevic
MIRCE Akademy, Exeter, EX5 1JJ, UK.
Although functionability properties of machines are defined through probability characteristics, like reliability, availability and similar, the full understanding of them is only possible by observing, analysing and understanding of the physical mechanisms that generate negative functionability events. A scientific understanding of the mechanisms that generate functionability phenomena, in Mirce Mechanics, is based on the fundamental understandings of the physical properties of atoms and molecules. The understanding and prediction of the properties of matter at the atomic level represents one of the great achievements of twentieth-century science. As matter is composed of atoms, this paper starts with its property and the manner in which the atomic elements are arranged. Electron density describes the distribution of the electronic charge throughout real space resulting from the attractive forces generated by nuclei. It is a measurable property that determines the appearance and form of matter. The theory developed to describe the behaviour of electrons, atoms and molecules differs radically from known Newtonian physics, which governs the motions of macroscopic bodies and the physical events of our everyday experiences. That new theory, which is able to account for all observable behaviour of matter, was named quantum mechanics. Thus, this paper presents the quantum theory approach to atoms in molecules, QTAIM, which is based on the revolutionary approached pioneered by Professor Richard F.W Bader (1931-2012)
This paper is dedicated to the memories of Richard F.W. Bader, Emeritus Professor of McMaster University in Canada, (1931-2012). He revolutionised chemistry by introducing quantum mechanical approach its physical understanding that led to the creation of the atoms in molecules theory [6]. Most material in this paper is based on the knowledge that Richard has accumulated during an extremely successful career and which he shared so enthusiastically with all of those who were able to embrace it. Professor Baderwas a Grand Fellow of the MIRCE Akademy and during the last two years of his life he has actively supported the development of Mirce Mechanics.
Full paper is available to the Members of the MIRCE Akademy.
Question for the month
A company has decided to develop a new control processor for a North Sea installation of a wind turbine. The processor will be based on equipment the company already has field reliability data for. It is envisaged that it will consist of the following three elements:
1. Fan, vaneaxial, whose Time to First Failure is defined by W(5000,5)
2. Data processor, whose Time to First Failure is defined by W(10000,1)
3. Mounting tray, whose Time to First Failure is defined by W(10000,7)
The three components are connected in series, from reliability point of view, and no maintenance activities are planned till the first failure of the control processor takes place.
The Solution Requirements
a) What is the Reliability Function of the Control Processor?
b) What is the Mean Time to First Failure of the Control Processor?
c) What is the probability of fault free operation for the first 6 months of continuous operation?
d) Given the difficulty in maintaining off-shore wind turbines, how much of an improvement in the intrinsic Mean Time to First Failure could be expected if another data Processor is added in a parallel configuration?
For the correct answer please see the Members Only area of the website.
Quation for the Month
"New scientific truth does not triumph by convincing its opponents and making them see the light, but rather because its opponents eventally die, and a new generation grow up that is familiar with it."
For the author of the quote please see the Members Only area of the website.
Orlando’s ASD- Simplified Technical English Example for the month:
Which is the correct sentence?
a) The circuits are connected by a switching relay?
b) A switching relay connects the circuits?
For the correct answer please see the Members Only area of the website.
>>>> To become a member of the MIRCE Akademy please click here <<<<
January 2013
Quotation for the month:
"Truth, like gold, is to be obtained not by its growth, but by washing away from it all that is not gold"
For the author of the quote please see the Members Only area of the website.
Question for the Month
When asked to define the length of time a customer is going to wait for spare parts for a new type of equipment, the logistics support manager (who has spent seventeen years supporting similar equipment, made the following judgement:
- 33 percent will get it within: 70 hours
- additional 44 percent will get it by 240 hours
- additional 13 percent will get it by 480 hours
- additional 5 percent will get it by 720 hours
a) Making use of the above data, determine the probability that a potential customer will receive the necessary parts within 3 hours of placing an order.
b) Also determine the proportion of customers whose demand for needed spares will be met within two weeks from the placing the order.
For the answer please see the Members Only area of the website.
Orlando’s ASD- Simplified Technical English Example for the month:
Which is the correct sentence?
a) Turn off the power.
b) Stop the power supply.
For the correct answer please see the Members Only area of the website.
Paper for the month:
Scientific Scale of Reliability
Jezdimir Knezevic, MIRCE Akademy, Woodbury Park, Exeter, UK
Since its beginnings in 1950s, the reliability theory has been based on mathematical theorems rather than on scientific theories. Massive attempts were made to further applications of the existing mathematical and statistical methods and analysis without attempts to understand "failure mechanics". Then, in the 1980s, practising reliability engineers and analysts, who had neither ability nor need to understand the mathematics, used what they had, which was enormous practical experience of the observed failure modes of existing systems. Thus, a large number of “practical reliability methods" have been developed and used, all of which were based on the failure mode, effect and criticality analysis, but still without understanding and addressing failure mechanics. Consequently, during the last 50 years, the Reliability Theory made very little progress, apart from a few exceptions, in the direction of becoming a science, in terms of making accurate predictions that could be confirmed with practical observations. The reason is very simple; neither statistics, which does not study causes of statistical behaviour, nor engineers whose “applied methods” were focused on meeting contractual and legal requirements, were able to provide a fertile ground for the development of reliability.
Full paper is available to the Members of the MIRCE Akademy.
>>>> To become a member of the MIRCE Akademy please click here <<<<