Annual Lecture
Hybrid Monte –Carlo Analytic Methods for resources optimization By A. Dubi , Ben Gurion University System Engineering is the science of predicting the behavior of systems over time. It was demonstrated in the past that this is an extremely complex problem resulting a need for the solution of a multi dimensional set of simultaneous integral equations. The awareness of this is slowly but clearly penetrating the industrial world and the use of the Monte Carlo Method, which is the only viable approach for the above problem, is becoming more and more acceptable. This, however, does not help much in the optimization of resources.
The complexity of System engineering problems, the need in an Integral equation for realistic industrial problems, the viability of the Monte Carlo method and the difficulty involved in approaching resource optimization problems will be discussed and explained.
A straight forward gradient search Monte Carlo optimization may require thousands or hundreds of thousands of calculations. This is impractical as each calculation may last hours of computer time. For many years it was believed that this is an insurmountable problem. A new approach was recently developed that may give hope.
The approach is based on a general relation between the system performance function and the waiting time resulting from lack of resources (Spare parts, men power or any other resource). This connection utilizes the concept of sensitivity, i.e. the "contribution of each component type to the loss of performance" – These concepts will be explained and the general nature of the functional relation will be demonstrated. A simple yet generally accurate model for the relation between the waiting time and quantities of resources will be established and an analytic general relation between the performance and resources will be obtained. This relation provides a tool for fast optimization requiring a small number of MC calculations while the parameters of the functional relation are obtained from these MC calculation. This provides, therefore a self optimizing MC mechanism. This mechanism was already realized for practical class of problems involving a single field of complex systems. This new capability will be demonstrated on a realistic problem and its extension to Multiple field cases will be discussed.
Man and Machine on Ice
by Dr Charles Swithinbank To pursue their chosen fields of study, polar scientists of the golden age have had to make maps; to navigate by sun, stars, or GPS; to drive dog-sledges and overhaul engines; to live in harmony with people from differing backgrounds-often under primitive conditions for years on end; to cook, to sew, to fabricate what they did not bring with them; and after it all to analyse and publish their findings in refereed journals or specialised monographs. Then-and only then-may they given a chance to go again. But first they must compete with scientists who argue that dozens of researchers could be employed in the UK for the cost of one in the Antarctic. It costs more than one million dollars to keep one person at the South Pole for a year, so Antarctic science has been described as the poor man's space programme. Dr Swithinbank's first Antarctic expedition was from 1949 to 1952 and led to his D.Phil. degree, probably Oxford's first in glaciology-the study office in all its forms. Few people in history have travelled more widely in the Arctic and Antarctic. He has worked with British, Canadian, Norwegian, Russian, Swedish, and US polar expeditions. He spent four years studying pack ice in Canadian waters, visited the North Pole in a nuclear submarine and later in a nuclear-powered icebreaker, passed twice through the Northwest Passage, and several times visited the South Pole. Formerly Chief Glaciologist and later head of the Earth Sciences Division of the British Antarctic Survey, in retirement he is a consultant and Senior Associate of the Scott Polar Research Institute in Cambridge. He holds an Honorary Doctorate from Milwaukee School of Engineering and has received medals from three reigning monarchs. The Royal Geographical Society awarded him their Patron's Medal (the medal worn by Nansen, Peary, Amundsen, Scott and Byrd). More geographical features in Antarctica have been named after him than after any other living explorer. A mountain range, two glaciers and three other place names are listed in the US Board on Geographic Names Geographic Names of the Antarctic. Charles is probably the only person to have worked in the Antarctic in each of the last seven decades.
He has travelled widely in icebreakers, on land with skis, dog sledges and snowmobiles, and spent more than 500 flying hours in the co-pilot's seat of aircraft on various polar expeditions. Latterly he has pioneered the use and interpretation of spacecraft observations of ice sheets; the US Geological Survey and the US Army have published his work in this area. Officially retired since 1986, Dr Swithinbank has been continuously involved with the Polar Regions as consultant ever since. In 1989 he spent six weeks based on the US Amundsen-Scott station at the South Pole, working for the US Army Corps of Engineers to develop new ways to land wheeled aircraft on the ice sheet. His research on naturally occurring bare ice suitable for landing transport aircraft has led to the development of two intercontinental air routes. He personally took part in all the proving flights, latterly from Cape Town to Queen Maud Land. NASA recently sought his advice on living and travelling on Mars. Swithinbank is the author of more than 100 scientific reports and four autobiographical works.
Voyage To The Ice By Polly Vacher 2004
Then, Polly gave up skydiving as a hobby in favour of flying. In 1994 she gained a her UK Private Pilot's License, just before moving to Australia for 18 months in connection with her husband's work. Having held a flying license for only a few months, Polly hired a light aircraft and flew with her husband Peter, around the circumference of Australia. From 1997 Polly has been one of five people, and the only woman, on the selection board for the "Royal International Air Tattoo Flying Scholarships for the Disabled. In 1997 Polly flew solo in a single engine Piper Dakota across the North Atlantic in 1977. Peter joined her in America and together they flew around the periphery of the United States and Canada. Then Polly flew on her own back across the Atlantic. On 17th May 2001, after 124 days of circumnavigating the globe through four continents, twenty countries and spending 232.45 hours in the pilot’s seat, Polly entered into aviation history as the woman who circumnavigated the world in the smallest plane via Australia and the Pacific. Being true to her self, full of energy and desire to make a further contribution to her favourite charity, to stretch herself even more and support scientific research, towards the end of 2001 Polly created the new challenge: another journey around the world but this time via the Arctic and Antarctic, places where no women have flown solo in light aircraft. The lecture covers the research, preparation, planning, sponsorship search and organisation of the challenge following by the events that took place during the 358 day journey of over 60000 nautical miles in length, which is recorded in history of aviation as: The first women to fly solo: - In a single engine light aircraft over the North Pole
while generating thousands and thousands of pounds for funds for The Royal International Air Tattoo Flying Scholarship for the Disabled in Memory of Group Captain Sir Douglas Bader. (Registered charity no. 1070281) The MIRCE Akademy proudly sponsored Polly and her GFRGN on both, record braking, flights around the world. Prognostics and Health Monitoring by Professor Michael Pecht Sometimes products fail too early. When they do, we hope that the failure does not affect our mission, prevent us from accomplishing a task or compromise our safety.
Product health monitoring and prognostics is a way to determine if a product is likely to fail prematurely. These methods are analogous to patients getting feedback from their physicians about their own health. For products, this feedback includes identification of how the product is degrading and the prediction of the remaining useful "life" of the product.
There has been a growing interest in monitoring the ongoing "health" of products and systems in order to receive an early warning to avoid catastrophic failureand to be able to schedule preventative maintenance. In this presentation, various prognostic methods to assess the health, as well as the remaining life, of products will be explained. These methods involve sensing and interpretation of the product’s operating parameters and environment to continuously assess the amount of a product’s degradation. Examples of prognostics and health monitoring being used in aircrafts, bridges, machine-tools, engines, and turbines will be discussed.
A case study to estimate the remaining life of a printed circuit board assembly in an automobile under-hood environment will be presented. Studies to assess the electronics in the NASA space shuttle arm and booster rockets will also be discussed. Some additional examples of in-situ semiconductor health monitors and MEMS sensors for health monitoring will then be given, along with concepts for future research development. For further information about Professor Pecht or CALCE-EPSC please go to www.calce.umd.edu
Solving Engineering Problems using Framework and Tools of Complexity Science Professor G. Rzevski
As evolution takes its course complexity of our economic, social and business environment increases. Methods and tools which were used under stable conditions are no longer effective in environments characterised by the occurrence of frequent, unpredictable changes. The new Complexity Science provides concepts (self-organisation, emergence, adaptation, evolution) and tools (ontology-based multi-agent software) specifically developed for resolving issues caused by uncertainty of operational conditions. A variety of case studies from the author's rich research and commercial experience will be used as illustrations of the power of the new paradigm.
Professor George Rzevski is an academic, entrepreneur and consultant. He is Professor Emeritus, The Open University, Milton Keynes; Visiting Professor of Multi-Agent Systems at Cologne University of Applied Sciences and Visiting Scholar at Westminster Business School, where he is involved in a number of advanced research projects in the fields of Complexity and Multi-Agent Systems. Professor Rzevski is Founder and Chief Scientist of Magenta Corporation Ltd, London, a successful medium-size international company developing and marketing multi-agent systems for applications such as logistics, e-commerce, text understanding and knowledge discovery, and Chairman of Rzevski Solutions Ltd, London, providing advice and solutions for a wide variety of organisational and Information Technology problems in private companies and administrations. Before founding Magenta Corporation, George was Professor in Department of Design and Innovation at The Open University, Milton Keynes, where he was Director, Centre for the Design of Intelligent Systems. As a tribute to his successful research career, the University established recently a new “The George Rzevski Complexity Laboratory”. George’s personal website is www.rzevski.net |