"Welcome to the birthplace of Mirce-mechanics - a science of the
motion of maintainable systems through Mirce-space, jolly useful for predicting functionability performance."  Dr Jezdimir Kneezevic, Founder 1999.

 

Paper for the Month


 Full papers are available to the Members of  the MIRCE Akademy free of charge.

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Category: General

Paper for May 2017

Mirce- mechanics Approach to the Analysis of the Cosmic Radiation Impact on Aviation Reliability

Dr J. Knezevic, MIRCE Akademy, Exeter, EX5 1JJ, UK
The main objective of this paper is to demonstrate the necessity of addressing all physical causes that lead to the transition of maintainable systems from positive to negative functionability state during their lives. Addressing the reliability characteristics of components and systems in isolation from the analysis of the impact of the natural environment on it, is not sufficient. Hence, results of the research performed in accordance to the Mirce-mechanics principles, have shown the significant impact of cosmic radiation on the in-service behaviour of aviation systems Due to the rapid advances in electronics technology and the unrelenting demand for increased avionics functionality the complexity of avionics systems has risen exponentially. Hence, ever more advanced microprocessor and memory semiconductor devices are being used that exhibit an increased susceptibility to cosmic radiation phenomena. Single Event Effects have been the primary radiation concern for avionics since the late 1980’s when the phenomenon, which had previously only been observed in orbiting satellites, also began to appear in aircraft electronic systems. The trend with each new generation of avionics system is to use increasing quantities of semiconductor memories and other complex devices that are susceptible to decreases in reliability due to ionising radiation from the cosmic rays from space. and alpha particles from radioactive impurities in the device itself. The interaction of this radiation can result in either a transient ‘soft error’ effect such as a bit flip in memory or a voltage transient in logic, alternatively a ‘hard error’ can be induced resulting in permanent damage such as the burn out of a transistor. Thus, this paper concludes that Mirce-mechanics approach to reliability is the only way forward for all members of the reliability community who wish to develop a method for accurate predictions of reliability, cost and effectiveness of aviation systems at early design stages, rather than to measure their in-service values and produce end of life statistics. 

Paper for April 2017

The Job of RMS Community is Provisioning of Work by Maintainable Systems 

Dr Jezdimir Knezevic, MIRCE Akademy, Exeter, UK
“Airlines are in the transportation business; Boeing, Douglas, Lockheed, Airbus, they're in the airplane business. You can have the shiniest looking airplane in the world, the most remarkably engineered airplane in the world, it's an academic marvel, it's an engineering marvel, but if the damned thing is not at B3 in Chicago at 9.15 to originate the trip to Cleveland, forget it.” Jack Hessburg (1934-2013) Grand Fellow of the MIRCE Akademy

Paper for March 2017

Physical Reality of Mirce-mechanics- Part 3: Human World

Dr J. Knezevic, MIRCE Akademy, Woodbury Park, Exeter, EX5 1JJ, UK

This paper provides an introduction to the Mirce-mechanics, a new discipline that studies the in-service behaviour of in-service life of maintainable systems in order to develop methods for the prediction of their functionability performance.  The in-service life is viewed as a sequence of occurrences of functionability events that are taking place in the time domain. The main argument provided here is that successful prediction can be achieved only by understanding the mechanisms that drive physical processes, which generate the occurrence of functionability events. In this paper the mechanisms that cause the occurrences of negative functionability events that originate from the human world, has been addressed and analysed. Also, the human world that is inevitable part of the maintainable systems has been briefly analysed in order to familiarise the members of their design teams with their particular characteristics that are very different from the technical world familiar to mechanical, electrical, aeronautical and other types of engineers. Also, the impact of human actions on the occurrences of the negative functionability events has been analysed and illustrated with several ”real life examples”. 

Paper for February 2017

Physical Reality of Mirce-mechanics- Part 2: Natural World

Dr J. Knezevic, MIRCE Akademy, Woodbury Park, Exeter, EX5 1JJ, UK
This paper provides an introduction to the Mirce-mechanics, a new discipline that studies the in-service behaviour of in-service life of maintainable systems in order to develop methods for the prediction of their functionability performance.  The in-service life is viewed as a sequence of occurrences of functionability events that are taking place in the time domain. The main argument provided here is that successful prediction can be achieved only by understanding the mechanisms that drive physical processes, which generate the occurrence of functionability events. In this paper the mechanisms that cause the occurrences of negative functionability events that originate from the natural world have been addressed and analysed. Also, the natural environment that souring most maintainable systems has been briefly analysed in order to familiarise the members of their design teams with daily natural environment  of their systems. Also, the impact of that environment on the occurrences of the negative functionability events has been analysed and illustrated with several “real life examples”. 
 

Paper for January 2017

Physical Reality of Mirce-mechanics- Part 1: Atomic World

Dr J. Knezevic, MIRCE Akademy, Woodbury Park, Exeter, EX5 1JJ, UK
This paper, through three parts, provides an introduction to the Mirce-mechanics, a new discipline that studies the in-service behaviour of in-service life of maintainable systems in order to develop a scientific methods for the prediction of their functionability performance.  The in-service life is viewed as a sequence of occurrences of functionability events that are taking place in the direction of time. The main argument provided here is that successful prediction can be achieved only by understanding the mechanisms that drive physical processes, which generate the occurrence of functionability events. It is author’s strong conviction that the understanding of those processes must be placed within the physical scale that will provide adequate level of fidelity. That scale is ranging from  the size of Atomic System (10-10 metre) and by the Solar System (1010 metre) on the other. Analysis and research performed in any “smaller scale” would not give the fidelity of observations which could lead to prediction errors. Part 1, is focussed on the fundamental aspects of atomic world and its impact on the functionability events in the world of maintainable systems, as perceived by the author.

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Prognostic Engineering Science - the attributes of decay that affect functionability-

Chris Burden BSc, MINDT, Science Fellow MIRCE, Director AePS.              

Mirce Profitability Equation

 Jezdimir KNEZEVIC,MIRCE Akademy, Woodbury Park,Exeter, EX5 1JJ, GB.

The shape of things to come: The new ways for predicting in-service reliability of new equipment

Alex Mulholland BSc CEng MIET HFMA, Finmeccanica, Airborne & Space Systems Division

Wearcheck Oil Diagnostics: Way to Improve Machine Health by Condition Monitoring

Dr. Mária Sutyinszki, MOL-LUB Ltd , H-2931 Almásfüzitő, Fő út 21, Hungary
Tonća Ćaleta Prolić, MIng Chem. INA Maziva d.o.o, Radnička cesta 175, Zagreb, Croatia

Increasing Profitability and Reliability Through Failure Management

Jezdimir Knezevic, MIRCE Akademy, Exeter, UK

Determination of Operations Down Time for Group Replacement Policy

Dr J. Knezevic,  MIRCE Akademy, Exeter, EX2 7YX, U.K.

Durability Driven Logistics Demand Analysis

K,ezevic J.  MIRCE Akademy, Woodbury Park, Exeter, U.K.

Maintainability Design Principles for Aircraft Maintenance Error Avoidance

Clive Nicholas, Mirce Engineering, Woodbury Park, Woodbury, Exeter EX5 1JJ, United Kingdom

Volcanic Ash as a Mechanism of a Motion in Mirce Mechanics

Dr Jezdimir Knezevic, MIR E Akademy, Woodbury Park, Exeter, EX5 1JJ, UK.

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Troubleshooting as a Mechanism of Motion in Mirce Mechanics

Dr Jezdimir Knezevic, The MIRCE Akademy, Woodbury Park, Exeter, EX5 1JJ, UK

Simultaneous Multiaxis Shaking

Wayne Tustin, Equipment Reliability Institute,
1520 Santa Rosa Avenue, Santa Barbara, California  93109  USA

Aerotoxic Syndrome as a Mirce Mechanics Phenomenon

Dr Jezdimir Knezevic, MIRCE Akademy, Woodbury Park, Exeter, EX5 1JJ, UK

Managing Lifecycle Complexity of Industrial Systems

Rzevski G., Open University Milton Keynes, UK, Skobelev P., Smart Solutions Ltd, Samara, Russia.

Aircraft Air-intake Icing on the Ground as a Mechanism of the Motion in Mirce Mechanics

Dr Jezdimir Knezevic, MIRCE Akademy, Woodbury Park, Exeter, EX5 1JJ, UK

Mirce Mechanics Analysis of Functionability of  NASA-contracted Commercial Resupply Services

Dr Jezdimir Knezevic, MIRCE Akademy, Woodbury Park, Exeter, EX5 1JJ, UK

Aircraft Ground Icing and De-icing Processes as Mechanisms of the Motion in Mirce Mechanics

Dr Jezdimir Knezevic, The MIRCE Akademy, Exeter, UK

Mirce Mechanics Analysis of Forward Visibility Loss of ATR 72 Caused by the Sea Salt Accretion on Front Windscreen

Dr J. Knezevic, The MIRCE Akademy, Exeter, UK

Mirce Maintainability Equation

Dr Jezdimir Knezevic, MIRCE Akademy, Woodbury Park, Exeter, EX5 1JJ, UK

Mirce Supportability Equation

Dr Jezdimir Knezevic, MIRCE Akademy, Woodbury Park, Exeter, EX5 1JJ, UK

Mathematical Principles of Mirce Mechanics

Dr Jezdimir Knezevic,  MIRCE Akademy, Woodbury Park, Exeter, EX5 1JJ, UK

Mirce Mechanics Philosophy

Dr Jezdimir KNEZEVIC, MIRCE Akademy, Woodbury Park, Exeter, EX5 1JJ, UK.

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Hospital Logistics

Mikko R. Salminen, Jyväskylä Polytechnic, School of Engineering and Technology,  Jyvaskyla, Finland

Space Weather as a Mechanism of the Motion in Mirce Mechanics

J. Knezevic, MIRCE Akademy, Exeter, EX5 1JJ, UK

Mirce Mechanics Analysis of the Flight 1549

 J. Knezevic, MIRCE Akademy, Exeter, EX5 1JJ, UK

Applied Genetic Programming in a Chemical Plant for Reducing Production Costs

Ariel Katz, Centre for M.I.R.C.E., University of Exeter, U.K.

Bird Strike as a Mechanism of the Motion in Mirce Mechanics

Dr J. Knezevic, MIRCE Akademy, Exeter, UK,

Efficient Learning of Failure Detection, Understanding and Prevention: Case Trial Bike

Pasi Lehtola and Juha Sipilä, Jyvaskyla University of Applied Sciences,  Finland

Possible Aproach to Reliability Prediction with Strength Degradation Proces

Zeljkovic Vladimir, LOLA Institute, Kneza Viseslava 70a, Belgrade, Yugoslavia

Life-Cycle Benefit of Repair

Adrian Blenkiron, Rolls Royce, Filton, UK

When “if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it may not be the best policy.

John Crocker,  Science Fellow of the MIRCE Akademy

System Engineering - Can reality prediction be made as accurate as in Physics?

Professor Arie Dubi, Department of Nuclear Engineerin, Ben Gurion University of the Negev, Beer-Sheva, Israel.

Opportunistic Maintenance in Aircraft using Relevant Condition Parameter based Approach

Dr Haritha Saranga
Indian Institute of Management Calcutta, P O Box 16757, Alipore (Post), Calcutta 700 027, INDIA

No Fault Found and Air Safety

Christopher J Hockley OBE, CEng MRAeS,
Centre for Through-Life Engineering Services, Cranfield University, Bedford, UK. 

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Design Impact on Human Error in Maintenance

C.S. Nicholas, MIRCE Akademy, Woodbury Park, Exeter, EX5 1JJ, UK

The Two Faces of Chemistry: Can they be reconciled?

Mark E. Eberhart1 and Travis E. Jones
Molecular Theory Group, Colorado School of Mines, Golden, Colorado 80401, USA

Physics-of-Failure based Reliability Engineering

Elviz George and Michael Pecht*
Center for Advanced Life Cycle Engineering (CALCE), University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742 USA

On The Non-Existence of Parallel Universes in Chemistry

Richard F. W. Bader, Grand Fellow of the MIRCE Akademy
Department of Chemistry, McMaster University, Hamilton, ON, Canada

Imperfect Troubleshooting in Commercial Aviation

J.G. Hessburg, J. Knezevic, MIRCE Akademy, Exeter, UK

Cosmic Phenomena in Mirce Mechanics Approach to Reliability and Safety

Ian. Zaczyk, Doctoral Diploma Student, MIRCE Akademy, Exeter, EX5 1JJ, UK

Impact of Cosmic Phenomena on Functionability - Mirce Mechanics Approach  

 Ian. Zaczyk,  Doctoral Diploma Student, MIRCE Akademy, Exeter, EX5 1JJ, UK

Assessment of meeting the MTBF targets for the product during the development trials, 

John Thompson, Science Fellow fo the MIRCE Akademy  

Aircraft Life as a Complex System:
A New Methodology for Increasing Service Quality and Maximizing Profit

George Rzevski
Professor Emeritus, Centre for Complexity Science Applications, The Open University, UK. Executive Chairman, Multi-Agent Technology Group, London, UK www.rzevski.net

Maintenance Axiom of Mirce Mechanics

Dr Jezdimir Knezevic
MIRCE Akademy, Woodbury Park, Exeter, EX5 1JJ, UK

Atoms and Molecules in Mirce Mechanics Approach to Functionability

Dr J. Knezevic
MIRCE Akademy, Exeter, EX5 1JJ, UK.

Scientific Scale of Reliability

Jezdimir Knezevic, MIRCE Akademy, Woodbury Park, Exeter, UK 

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